August 14, 2004

The Nose Holding Graph

We have about two weeks worth of data, and for the sake of, well, my own ego, I built the Nose Holding graph:

As you can see, the big red things at the bottom are Bush nose holders, the blue things at the top are Kerry nose holders. The first data point is the pre-speech numbers for the Bush and Kerry voters holding their nose. Looking at the graph, it is pretty obvious that Kerry has to do something to bring Bush's nose holding numbers up. He's tried various strategies, like claiming Bush isn't a true conservative, though only Andrew Sullivan drank that Kool-Aid. This is Kerry's fundamental problem. Bush can rely on his base to show up at the polls, and Kerry can't. What I saw today on Bill Maher's Real Time confirms it. Maher got all in a tizzy because Kerry said he would have voted for war anyway. So Mahr is now a Nose Holder(at least), and more than a few members of the left were completely disillusioned.

In order for Bush to get the sort of disillusionment in his base that Kerry is getting from his base would be to do something so mind-numbingly stupid that it would literally boggle the mind. Unless Bush is found in flagrante delicto with pictures of young boys, or something similarly vile, he can count on his supporters to show up at the polls in November. And that is why Nose Holding is important. It measures relative commitment, or lack thereof.

Posted by John Bono at August 14, 2004 12:12 AM| Link Cosmos

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I've managed to install the newest version of MT-blacklist, so public commenting is again enabled. If I get spammed heavily, I'll reinstate registration via TypeKey.

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