September 20, 2004

Bush Blowout Watch

Well, maybe I should change that, seeing as how Bush is trailing Kerry by five points. In New York!

September 20, 2004--John Kerry's lead in New York is down to single digits. The Empire State, among the bluest of the Blue States from Election 2000, is still in the Kerry column for our Electoral College projections, but the raw numbers are stunning.

Confirming findings found in other recent polls, Rasmussen Reports shows John Kerry leading George Bush by merely five percentage points, 49% to 44%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry New York by a 25 point margin. Our last New York survey found Kerry up by 19 points.

Bush is also closer than expected in neighboring New Jersey.

For Bush to be competitive with Kerry, in New York of all places, is stunning. If this poll isn't an outlyer, then that means that New York is now in play, and that Kerry will have to spend money to make certain it stays a Kerry state--and the New York tri-state media market is the most expensive media market in the country. This is bad news for Kerry.

Posted by John Bono at September 20, 2004 09:40 PM| Link Cosmos

Did a link ask for annoying Registration? Bug me not!

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