September 30, 2004

Enthusiasm Gap is putting it mildly

Powerline links to a WaPo article about how Kerry has problems with an "enthusiasm gap":

While the enthusiasm gap is apparent across most key voting blocks, nowhere is it more striking than in the way that political conservatives, moderates and liberals view their respective choices.

Bush's conservative base is broadly enthusiastic about the president while political liberals are noticeably cooler to Kerry. Among registered voters, nearly seven in 10 self-described conservative supporters of Bush say they're enthusiastic about the president. But four in 10 liberals -- 43 percent -- express similar levels of excitement about Kerry.

That's putting it mildly. As my HMN google survey shows, voters who are going to the polls to pull the (D) lever are not voting for Kerry, not by a long stretch. They are only voting against Bush. They would like prefer to vote for Billary, Dean, even Nader, but if they can't get any of the above, they'll vote for Kerry and hold their nose. That isn't an energized base. That is a depressed base. That is also why this debate is so important for Kerry, but not very important for Bush. If Kerry can't use this podium to energize his base, he's finished.

Bush, on the other hand, only has to avoid alienating his own base while reaching out to swing voters. Only if Bush does something truly, monumentally stupid can he hurt himself in this debate, and that gives Bush room to maneuver which Kerry does not have--and it will have an effect on the debate.

Posted by John Bono at September 30, 2004 06:46 PM| Link Cosmos

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